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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."